How concrete is NAMA's future?

Since NAMA was set up in April 2009, a tremendous amount of work has been achieved in a relatively short period of time. By the end of September 2011, NAMA had acquired over 11,000 loans with an approximate face value of €71bn and a reported book value of around €31bn. During this time, NAMA has also established a robust and competent workforce which appears able in maintaining the recent impressive performance of the institution.

In what is hopefully the first of many, December 2011 saw NAMA selling off a portfolio of loans relating to a UK developer for a reported price of £280m. Furthermore, John Fleming, a developer whose assets had previously been taken over by NAMA has recently emerged from bankruptcy allowing him to draw a line under his €1bn – odd debts.  NAMA has also announced that they will make up to 2,000 Irish homes available for social housing before the end of 2012. However, NAMA has yet to foreclose on the full 2,000 homes, meaning the developers still have discretion over the disposal of the assets until NAMA finalizes the foreclosure process. 

A review carried out between September and October 2011 provides an update on the ability of NAMA in reaching their anticipated goals by 2019.  The report affirms that NAMA is currently at the point where experts expected it to be at this time. However, once again the future projections seem overly optimistic.  NAMA aims to repay €7.5bn of its debt by 2013, €16.5bn by the end of 2016 and €7.0bn by the end of 2019. While NAMA believes these goals are S.M.A.R.T (Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Realistic and Timed)! Experts fear that too much of the assets will be consumed to meet the first goal leaving a shortfall in assets for the remaining goals.